Fed rate hike in 2026?
Ends: Dec 9, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 15, 2026, 23:25 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T03:58:41.763Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T07:55:34.906Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T12:54:35.772Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T16:55:15.975Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T21:40:24.035Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T01:53:00.201Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T06:53:43.001Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T10:53:25.885Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T15:58:26.816Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T19:54:58.495Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T00:51:42.225Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T04:52:49.814Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T09:43:48.097Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T13:57:22.215Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T18:54:28.608Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T23:55:30.120Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T03:59:30.728Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T08:54:36.198Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T12:57:22.292Z | 54.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T17:32:04.517Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T21:58:55.157Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T02:14:14.901Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T06:42:40.761Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T11:17:11.503Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T15:50:02.445Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T20:43:58.153Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T01:56:12.865Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T15:55:54.460Z | 93.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:56:19.643Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:25:46.019Z | 95.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.