Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 24:40 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 21:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
TEAM FALCONS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T19:54:43.500Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:00:21.083Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:07:08.070Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:12:53.417Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:20:25.124Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:26:02.730Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:31:17.848Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:36:41.528Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:42:03.954Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:47:29.953Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:52:45.230Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T20:58:06.572Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:03:20.091Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:10:25.499Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:15:57.685Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:21:51.098Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:28:12.234Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Team Falcons and Nigma Galaxy in the 1win Essence Group B, initially scheduled for July 31 at 1:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Team Falcons" if Team Falcons win Game 1 against Nigma Galaxy. This market will resolve to "Nigma Galaxy" if Nigma Galaxy win Game 1 against Team Falcons. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.