Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 23:40 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 24:26 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T22:22:10.399Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:32:26.336Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:42:36.417Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:52:51.408Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:57:56.293Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:08:07.076Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:18:16.625Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:53:49.140Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:04:03.257Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:14:21.959Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:19:28.693Z | 100.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
In the upcoming MLB game between the Minnesota Twins and Kansas City Royals, scheduled for August 4 at 7:40 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one run is scored in the 1st inning by either the Minnesota Twins or Kansas City Royals. This market will resolve to "No" if no runs are scored in the 1st inning by either team. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50. To know when a postponed game will be played, please check the home team's schedule on MLB.com for the listed team and look for the game described as a makeup game. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.