Vancouver: Kayla Day vs Mai Hontama
Ends: Aug 2, 2026, 22:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 24:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
KAYLA DAY probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T20:35:41.847Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:40:44.078Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:50:55.213Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:55:59.643Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:06:04.802Z | 76.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:11:09.630Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:16:15.430Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:26:25.323Z | 49.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:31:35.383Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:41:41.988Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:46:42.739Z | 74.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:56:50.590Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:02:07.180Z | 65.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:07:10.836Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:17:20.400Z | 69.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:22:30.593Z | 56.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:32:41.805Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:37:45.764Z | 45.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:42:50.708Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:53:01.397Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:58:13.787Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:08:25.314Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:13:55.658Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:24:05.341Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:29:10.911Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:34:15.754Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:44:26.854Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:49:36.159Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:59:43.821Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:04:51.389Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Kayla Day and Mai Hontama in the Vancouver, originally scheduled for July 26, 2026 at 6:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Kayla Day' if Kayla Day advances against Mai Hontama. This market will resolve to 'Mai Hontama' if Mai Hontama advances against Kayla Day. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the WTA Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.