National Bank Open: Frances Tiafoe vs Marin Cilic
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 23:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 02:01 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
FRANCES TIAFOE probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T23:31:23.255Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:37:57.825Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:43:02.037Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:48:08.949Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:53:49.141Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:58:57.141Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:04:03.257Z | 40.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:09:08.784Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:14:21.959Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:19:28.693Z | 38.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:24:39.949Z | 60.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:29:47.378Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:34:53.995Z | 63.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:39:58.343Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:45:08.637Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:50:18.304Z | 70.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:55:28.178Z | 92.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:34.446Z | 91.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:05:37.984Z | 90.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:10:42.791Z | 98.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:15:48.539Z | 99.6% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:22:24.588Z | 99.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:27:32.318Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:32:37.647Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:37:43.037Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:42:47.365Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:47:52.480Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:52:58.430Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:58:01.975Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T02:03:07.696Z | 100.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Frances Tiafoe and Marin Cilic in the National Bank Open, originally scheduled for August 4, 2026 at 7:00PM ET. This market will resolve to 'Frances Tiafoe' if Frances Tiafoe advances against Marin Cilic. This market will resolve to 'Marin Cilic' if Marin Cilic advances against Frances Tiafoe. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.