Market Analysis
Back to markets
Sports · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Bonn: Max Houkes vs Roberto Carballes Baena

Ends: Aug 3, 2026, 08:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC

VERDICTFAIR VALUE CALCULATING

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET MAX HOUKES 0.1%MARX FAIR MAX HOUKES -
MAX HOUKES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price is calculating. The line appears after data validation.
Jul 28, 06:53 AMJul 28, 08:19 AMJul 28, 09:45 AMJul 28, 11:12 AMJul 28, 12:38 PM UTC

MAX HOUKES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T10:12:17.557Z37.0%-
2026-07-28T10:17:22.396Z25.5%-
2026-07-28T10:22:27.454Z20.5%-
2026-07-28T10:27:32.618Z17.5%-
2026-07-28T10:32:33.502Z4.5%-
2026-07-28T10:37:38.036Z2.4%-
2026-07-28T10:42:42.403Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T10:47:47.322Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T10:52:52.250Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T10:58:02.289Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:03:07.480Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:08:12.259Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:13:17.243Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:18:22.360Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:24:08.995Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:29:12.874Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:34:17.340Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:39:50.941Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:44:53.172Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:49:57.752Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T11:55:02.830Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:00:10.531Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:05:12.768Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:10:17.524Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:15:22.597Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:20:27.912Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:25:32.404Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:30:45.803Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:35:47.517Z0.1%-
2026-07-28T12:38:11.329Z0.1%-

FAIR PRICE CALCULATION

  • Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market refers to the tennis match between Max Houkes and Roberto Carballes Baena in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 27, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Max Houkes' if Max Houkes advances against Roberto Carballes Baena. This market will resolve to 'Roberto Carballes Baena' if Roberto Carballes Baena advances against Max Houkes. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.