Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31?
Ends: Nov 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 18, 2026, 15:53 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T19:53:59.484Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T23:24:01.632Z | 15.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T04:54:23.242Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T08:30:30.483Z | 29.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T12:58:54.063Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T18:55:21.644Z | 31.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T22:47:19.522Z | 31.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T02:51:29.094Z | 30.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T15:55:54.460Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T16:08:39.014Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T20:59:55.973Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T16:56:23.233Z | 20.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T21:59:16.059Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T02:57:45.813Z | 20.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T04:55:04.138Z | 20.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T08:58:39.422Z | 20.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T13:56:55.946Z | 19.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T17:56:34.874Z | 23.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T22:28:46.427Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-18T02:59:39.933Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-18T07:28:55.279Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-18T12:00:20.697Z | 7.2% | - | — |
| 2026-09-18T15:53:35.101Z | 7.1% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, is scheduled to perform in Russia in October 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Kanye West performs live in-person on-stage in front of a live audience in Russia by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The performance must take place at an event that was announced or promoted in advance, and held at a venue such as an arena, stadium, festival ground, concert hall, theater, or club, and is open to an audience by ticket, invitation, or other controlled entry. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.