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Economy · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?

Ends: Sep 16, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 11:57 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 1.8%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 21, 12:56 PMJul 23, 06:41 AMJul 25, 12:26 AMJul 26, 06:12 PMJul 28, 11:57 AM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T07:22:52.162Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T07:33:02.108Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T07:43:22.166Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T07:53:42.263Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:03:52.134Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:08:54.223Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:19:07.147Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:29:22.196Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:39:31.215Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:49:42.093Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T08:59:52.139Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:10:02.126Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:20:07.261Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:30:17.094Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:35:22.335Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:45:37.341Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T09:55:52.194Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:06:07.413Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:16:17.232Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:26:27.379Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:36:35.400Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:46:57.445Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T10:57:08.307Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:07:17.578Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:12:22.499Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:22:32.618Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:32:42.464Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:42:57.560Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:53:05.690Z1.8%-
2026-07-28T11:57:11.221Z1.8%-

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's September 2026 meeting. If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for September 15-16, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their September meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.