Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
Ends: Nov 3, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 22:07 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T21:10:25.500Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:15:57.685Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:21:51.098Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:28:12.234Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:37:35.810Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:42:45.569Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:47:51.642Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:54:08.672Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T21:59:17.465Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:07:08.811Z | 43.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:07:14.318Z | 43.5% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the party that controls the Senate following the 2026 U.S. Senate elections scheduled for November 3, 2026. Senate control is defined as having more than half of the voting Senate members, or half of the voting Senate members and the Vice Presidency. If the outcome of this election is ambiguous given the above rules, this market will remain open until the Majority Leader of the US Senate is selected following the 2026 US general election, at which point it will resolve to the party the majority leader is affiliated with at the time of their election to that position. If the elected majority leader does not caucus with any listed party this market will resolve “Other”. Determination of which party controls the Senate after the 2026 US Senate elections will be based on a consensus of credible reporting, or if there is ambiguity, final federal and/or state election authority certification or other final official determination of the 2026 election results.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.