Ethereum Up or Down on August 23?
Ends: Aug 23, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 19:28 UTCResult: UPResolved: Aug 23, 2026, 16:14 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T16:55:15.974Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T19:45:16.474Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-21T23:57:36.314Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T04:53:14.182Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T08:58:40.098Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T13:54:45.481Z | 50.5% | 55.5% | +5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T16:56:05.278Z | 60.5% | 55.5% | -5.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T17:59:18.943Z | 60.5% | 58.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T18:45:56.872Z | 60.5% | 58.7% | -1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-22T21:58:16.450Z | 51.5% | 48.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-22T22:59:01.974Z | 51.5% | 57.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-22T23:59:31.404Z | 51.5% | 57.5% | +6.0 pp |
| 2026-08-23T00:53:30.423Z | 51.5% | 63.7% | +12.2 pp |
| 2026-08-23T01:54:42.739Z | 56.5% | 60.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-23T02:59:08.246Z | 56.5% | 60.7% | +4.2 pp |
| 2026-08-23T04:55:26.220Z | 56.5% | 30.7% | -25.8 pp |
| 2026-08-23T05:44:57.509Z | 25.5% | 25.5% | -0.0 pp |
| 2026-08-23T06:48:08.325Z | 25.5% | 34.0% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-23T07:59:50.907Z | 25.5% | 35.0% | +9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-23T08:09:15.387Z | 25.5% | 35.0% | +9.5 pp |
| 2026-08-23T09:43:25.022Z | 25.5% | 48.6% | +23.1 pp |
| 2026-08-23T12:39:08.928Z | 77.5% | 65.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-23T12:49:07.801Z | 77.5% | 65.8% | -11.7 pp |
| 2026-08-23T14:56:50.622Z | 77.5% | 95.9% | +18.4 pp |
| 2026-08-23T15:53:13.152Z | 77.5% | 100.0% | +22.5 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 23, 03:53 PM | 77.5% | 100.0% | +22 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 23, 02:56 PM | 77.5% | 95.9% | +18 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 23, 12:39 PM | 77.5% | 65.8% | −12 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 23, 09:43 AM | 25.5% | 48.6% | +23 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 23, 08:09 AM | 25.5% | 35.0% | +9.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 23, 06:48 AM | 25.5% | 34.0% | +8.5 pp | BUY UP |
| Aug 23, 05:44 AM | 25.5% | 25.5% | −0.0 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 23, 04:55 AM | 56.5% | 30.7% | −26 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 22 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 23 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 22 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 23 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.