Iran full airspace closure by August 15?
Ends: Aug 15, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 09:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:09:59.697Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:15:36.419Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:21:24.740Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:27:42.541Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:54.858Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:39:31.546Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:45:17.708Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:52:15.368Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:00:16.913Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:08:14.040Z | 32.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:08:27.202Z | 32.0% | - | — |
2026-08-01T00:24:42.214597+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.1% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 34.5%. Reaction Time 28036941 ms. Crowd Lag 3016 seconds.
2026-08-01T00:29:34.453226+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.6% to 38.1%; Polymarket was 34.5%. Reaction Time 48198888 ms. Crowd Lag 3163 seconds.
2026-08-01T00:32:23.147846+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.0% to 38.6%; Polymarket was 35.0%. Reaction Time 52356424 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
2026-08-01T00:38:27.302955+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.0% to 38.6%; Polymarket was 35.0%. Reaction Time 27285482 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 29.9% to 35.7%; Polymarket was 29.5%. Reaction Time 775848 ms. Crowd Lag 172590 seconds.
THE PIVOT
Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 38.1% → 38.0%
- REACTION
- 28036.94s
- CROWD LAG
- 3016s
2026-08-01T00:24:42.214597+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.1% to 38.0%; Polymarket was 34.5%. Reaction Time 28036941 ms. Crowd Lag 3016 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 38.6% → 38.1%
- REACTION
- 48198.89s
- CROWD LAG
- 3163s
2026-08-01T00:29:34.453226+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.6% to 38.1%; Polymarket was 34.5%. Reaction Time 48198888 ms. Crowd Lag 3163 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 38.0% → 38.6%
- REACTION
- 52356.42s
- CROWD LAG
- STILL OPEN
2026-08-01T00:32:23.147846+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.0% to 38.6%; Polymarket was 35.0%. Reaction Time 52356424 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 38.0% → 38.6%
- REACTION
- 27285.48s
- CROWD LAG
- STILL OPEN
2026-08-01T00:38:27.302955+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 38.0% to 38.6%; Polymarket was 35.0%. Reaction Time 27285482 ms. Crowd Lag is still open.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 29.9% → 35.7%
- REACTION
- 775.85s
- CROWD LAG
- 172590s
2026-07-30T00:46:08.669117+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 29.9% to 35.7%; Polymarket was 29.5%. Reaction Time 775848 ms. Crowd Lag 172590 seconds.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran initiates a general closure of its airspace, that is not solely due to weather conditions, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A “general closure” refers to a cancellation or suspension of aviation which is generally applicable to all commercial flights transiting Iranian airspace (“Tehran FIR”). A qualifying closure must apply generally to all of Iran or the Tehran FIR; limited cancellations, delays, or partial closures will not qualify. A closure which applies generally to commercial aviation across Iranian airspace, with limited exceptions for certain categories of flights, however, will qualify (e.g. exceptions for certain flights pre-approved by the Iranian Civil Aviation Authority may be permitted). Qualifying previous examples include the February 28, 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace (https://www.iranintl.com/en/202602289115) and the January 2026 total closure of Iranian airspace except to international flights with express governmental permission (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iran-shuts-airspace-most-flights-flightradar24-says-2026-01-14/). Non-qualifying examples include the January 27, 2026 partial closure of Iranian airspace around the Strait of Hormuz (https://www.aa.com.tr/en/middle-east/iran-issues-airspace-notice-for-military-drills-near-strait-of-hormuz/3812508), the April 2024 closure of Iran’s western airspace (https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/iranian-airports-cancel-flights-until-monday-morning-2024-04-14/), and the January 25 - April 25, 2026 VFR (Visual Flight Rules) flights suspension which did not broadly close commercial aviation in Iran (https://www.intellinews.com/iran-suspends-general-aviation-and-vfr-flights-in-new-airspace-directive-421997/). Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Iran will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution. Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions, earthquakes, or volcanic eruptions, will not qualify. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from Iranian aviation authorities and a consensus of credible reporting.
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