Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
Ends: Oct 4, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 22:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-27T08:24:15.142Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T08:39:37.901Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:13:17.358Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:33:36.451Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T09:48:51.028Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:09:36.076Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:24:50.537Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:45:05.553Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:00:15.594Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:20:44.837Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:41:21.071Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T11:56:39.653Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T12:16:59.716Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T12:32:14.436Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T12:52:28.084Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T13:07:48.531Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:16:37.572Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:36:59.086Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:52:48.026Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:05:09.719Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:20:24.625Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:40:42.423Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:01:43.505Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:16:59.797Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:37:14.935Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:52:30.156Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:12:41.611Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:28:00.646Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:29:24.899Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:34:04.123Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026. This market will resolve according to the listed candidate that wins this election. This market includes any potential second round. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.