Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs MOUZ - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 18:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 15:00 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LGD GAMING probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T12:52:22.246Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T12:57:28.703Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:02:36.970Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:08:53.210Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:14:14.405Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:19:52.427Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:25:17.886Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:30:24.153Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:37:14.955Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:42:25.441Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:47:30.101Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:52:56.309Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T13:58:06.342Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:03:14.874Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:08:54.551Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:14:15.265Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:19:21.312Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:24:27.139Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:29:56.156Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:35:34.715Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:40:45.694Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:45:51.152Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:52:12.594Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T14:57:20.801Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between LGD Gaming and MOUZ in the 1win Essence Group A, initially scheduled for July 30 at 7:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.