Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in August?
Ends: Sep 1, 2026, 04:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 15:48 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T13:04:04.451Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:09:37.823Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:15:54.127Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:21:08.141Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:26:25.734Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:31:45.128Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:37:20.327Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:45:26.435Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:50:39.105Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T13:55:53.322Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:01:36.372Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:09:53.832Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:16:21.617Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:22:44.077Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:28:45.884Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:34:40.267Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:40:51.505Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:46:35.150Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:52:11.754Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T14:57:27.634Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:02:36.956Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:07:49.729Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:13:24.028Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:18:44.172Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:26:03.492Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:31:39.116Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:37:00.320Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:43:14.084Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:48:31.963Z | 10.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:48:56.395Z | 10.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if any Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT during the month specified in the title (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final Low price equal to or lower than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT Low prices available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT, with the chart settings on "1m" for one-minute candles selected on the top bar. Please note that the outcome of this market depends solely on the price data from the Binance BTC/USDT trading pair. Prices from other exchanges, different trading pairs, or spot markets will not be considered for the resolution of this market.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.