Will Haley Stevens win the 2026 Michigan Democratic Primary?
Ends: Aug 4, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 08:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T18:51:54.315Z | 23.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:17:24.975Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:47:55.504Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:19:46.855Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T20:45:26.681Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:16:05.379Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:41:42.306Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:12:15.836Z | 23.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:37:46.752Z | 23.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:08:25.578Z | 23.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:39:20.705Z | 23.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:04:52.063Z | 23.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:35:36.129Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T01:01:36.743Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T01:32:01.259Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T01:57:26.354Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:28:26.969Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T02:59:33.021Z | 24.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:24:56.465Z | 24.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T03:55:26.495Z | 24.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:20:54.007Z | 24.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T04:51:26.298Z | 24.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:21:56.624Z | 24.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T05:47:16.612Z | 24.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:17:52.767Z | 24.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T06:43:33.217Z | 24.9% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:15:28.450Z | 24.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T07:40:58.173Z | 24.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:11:32.677Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:13:01.560Z | 24.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan. If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.