Bonn: Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida vs Federico Agustin Gomez
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 08:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 14:39 UTCResult: FEDERICO AGUSTIN GOMEZResolved: Jul 31, 2026, 14:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
MATHEUS PUCINELLI DE ALMEIDA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T11:55:58.019Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:02:44.450Z | 58.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:10:09.988Z | 57.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:16:11.145Z | 40.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:22:23.205Z | 41.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:27:59.194Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:33:16.945Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:38:34.014Z | 61.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:43:51.121Z | 62.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:49:18.766Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T12:55:31.637Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:00:56.422Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:06:15.231Z | 59.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:12:06.986Z | 77.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:17:32.209Z | 87.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:27:20.085Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:32:37.239Z | 50.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:40:09.153Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:46:55.219Z | 49.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T13:53:12.707Z | 44.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:00:55.784Z | 0.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:10:07.813Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:16:03.535Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:27:11.571Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:32:32.046Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T14:39:27.325Z | 0.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the tennis match between Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida and Federico Agustin Gomez in the Bonn, originally scheduled for July 31, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to 'Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida' if Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida advances against Federico Agustin Gomez. This market will resolve to 'Federico Agustin Gomez' if Federico Agustin Gomez advances against Matheus Pucinelli de Almeida. If the match is canceled (not played at all), ends in a tie, or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without a winner determined, this market will resolve to 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed, and one player advances due to the opponent's retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve to the player who advances. If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.