Ethereum Up or Down on August 6?
Ends: Aug 6, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 6, 2026, 13:36 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-06T10:09:40.685Z | 95.5% | 94.1% | -1.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:17:39.912Z | 95.5% | 92.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:25:42.380Z | 95.5% | 94.5% | -1.0 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:33:36.094Z | 95.5% | 94.9% | -0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:45:36.621Z | 95.5% | 94.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:49:41.908Z | 95.5% | 95.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-06T10:55:45.039Z | 95.5% | 94.0% | -1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:02:35.970Z | 95.5% | 92.7% | -2.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:06:39.697Z | 95.5% | 90.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:16:38.062Z | 95.5% | 96.2% | +0.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:21:20.071Z | 95.5% | 97.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:27:35.596Z | 88.0% | 96.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:35:43.755Z | 88.0% | 97.8% | +9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:45:51.186Z | 88.0% | 98.2% | +10.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T11:55:46.061Z | 88.0% | 97.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:05:42.914Z | 88.0% | 97.4% | +9.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:09:38.574Z | 88.0% | 96.5% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:16:39.491Z | 88.0% | 96.5% | +8.5 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:22:38.636Z | 88.0% | 97.7% | +9.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:30:39.807Z | 88.0% | 97.9% | +9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:36:41.694Z | 88.0% | 98.1% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:42:48.868Z | 88.0% | 98.1% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T12:53:36.216Z | 88.0% | 98.1% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:03:41.801Z | 88.0% | 96.7% | +8.7 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:07:37.586Z | 88.0% | 94.2% | +6.2 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:16:38.867Z | 88.0% | 95.1% | +7.1 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:22:36.396Z | 88.0% | 95.9% | +7.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:31:37.305Z | 88.0% | 94.4% | +6.4 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:35:42.260Z | 88.0% | 96.9% | +8.9 pp |
| 2026-08-06T13:36:34.892Z | 88.0% | 96.9% | +8.9 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 06, 01:35 PM | 95.5% | 96.9% | +1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 01:31 PM | 95.5% | 94.4% | −1.1 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 01:22 PM | 95.5% | 95.9% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 01:16 PM | 95.5% | 95.1% | −0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 01:07 PM | 95.5% | 94.2% | −1.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 01:03 PM | 95.5% | 96.7% | +1.2 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 12:53 PM | 95.5% | 98.1% | +2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 06, 12:42 PM | 95.5% | 98.1% | +2.6 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for ETH/USDT Aug 5 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 6 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the ETH/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/ETH_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance ETH/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.