Will United Russia win fewer than 280 seats in the next Russian State Duma election?
Ends: Sep 20, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 16, 2026, 15:32 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-24T11:54:05.399Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T15:48:03.557Z | 4.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T19:53:32.942Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T00:57:09.744Z | 4.7% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T04:54:20.116Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T09:57:49.723Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T13:59:00.810Z | 3.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T18:55:21.494Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-25T23:59:56.959Z | 4.2% | - | — |
| 2026-08-26T03:48:26.315Z | 4.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T15:55:54.849Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T16:58:36.765Z | 2.6% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T21:27:45.897Z | 3.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T01:58:34.354Z | 5.2% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T06:55:08.582Z | 3.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T11:09:28.171Z | 3.4% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T15:32:43.231Z | 3.6% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by United Russia in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election. If results are not known definitively by May 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma. This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.