Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 11:33 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:15:34.060Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:21:24.698Z | 14.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:27:39.752Z | 19.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:52.276Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:38:09.769Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:48:33.315Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:56:00.546Z | 18.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:02:37.336Z | 18.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:08:25.220Z | 18.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:17:05.587Z | 18.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:30:17.760Z | 19.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:35:54.609Z | 19.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:49.021Z | 19.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:47:04.456Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:53:55.130Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:04:26.703Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:10:00.078Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:15:43.980Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:22:13.071Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:27:45.600Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:32:55.695Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:43:52.449Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:49:00.010Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:55:39.505Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:01:01.379Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:07:36.263Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:18:01.133Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:23:31.912Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:28:45.032Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T11:33:02.010Z | 24.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gianni Infantino ceases to be the president of FIFA for any length of time between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An announcement of Infantino's resignation or firing before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation or firing goes into effect. Announcements of intention to resign will qualify, regardless of if or when the resignation goes into effect. Suspensions, administrative leave, or other temporary measures will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA or Gianni Infantino, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
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