Athletics vs. Cincinnati Reds
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 22:40 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:34 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ATHLETICS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-05T00:39:42.884Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:44:48.081Z | 67.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:49:54.249Z | 58.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:54:59.502Z | 46.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:00:04.703Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:05:09.784Z | 10.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:10:13.540Z | 16.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:15:22.578Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:20:44.760Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:25:47.920Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:30:52.791Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T01:34:54.734Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
In the upcoming MLB game between the Athletics and Cincinnati Reds, scheduled for August 4 at 6:40PM ET: This market will resolve to "Athletics" if the Athletics win the game. This market will resolve to "Cincinnati Reds" if the Cincinnati Reds win the game. If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, or ends in a tie, this market will resolve 50-50. The primary resolution source for this market is the official final statistics of the event as recognized by the governing body or event organizers. However, if the governing body or event organizers have not published final match statistics within 24 hours after the event's conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.