Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Sep 17, 2026, 07:04 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-15T16:58:36.765Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T18:55:56.671Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-09-15T23:54:23.994Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T03:59:03.549Z | 92.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T08:27:07.785Z | 93.2% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T13:11:39.814Z | 94.7% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T17:57:50.079Z | 93.3% | - | — |
| 2026-09-16T22:04:44.803Z | 92.0% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T02:34:21.059Z | 92.9% | - | — |
| 2026-09-17T07:04:06.559Z | 93.7% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
If Xi Jinping visits the United States between market creation and September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Xi Jinping physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the United States. Whether or not Xi Jinping enters US airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the US or China, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.