Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs MIBR - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 06:30 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 03:18 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
EVIL GENIUSES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T01:03:01.854Z | 81.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:11:13.866Z | 34.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:16:33.055Z | 34.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:23:01.275Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:31:08.828Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:41:13.848Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:46:23.469Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:53:30.171Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:58:39.578Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:04:23.217Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:14:14.826Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:24:26.057Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:29:57.949Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:36:08.995Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:41:35.166Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:46:43.825Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:56:20.209Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:01:26.611Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:07:42.660Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T03:14:18.503Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Valorant match between Evil Geniuses and MIBR in the VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alpha, initially scheduled for July 31 at 8:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Evil Geniuses" if Evil Geniuses win Map 1 against MIBR. This market will resolve to "MIBR" if MIBR win Map 1 against Evil Geniuses. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://vlr.gg. However, if https://vlr.gg has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.