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Economy · POLYMARKET · LIVE

Fed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?

Ends: Dec 9, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC

VERDICTINSUFFICIENT DATA

POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR

Probability divergence over time

POLYMARKET YES 69.5%MARX FAIR YES -
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair0255075100
MARX FAIRFair Price was not published: reliable data is insufficient.
Jul 16, 10:48 AMJul 19, 11:16 AMJul 22, 11:43 AMJul 25, 12:11 PMJul 28, 12:38 PM UTC

YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair

Text equivalent of the chart
TimePolymarketMarx FairEdge
2026-07-28T03:44:03.604Z71.0%-—
2026-07-28T04:04:22.500Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T04:19:42.272Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T04:40:03.301Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T05:00:22.245Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T05:20:47.140Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T05:36:02.207Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T05:56:22.428Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T06:16:37.238Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T06:31:52.417Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T06:52:12.315Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T07:12:32.551Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T07:32:52.424Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T07:48:27.775Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T08:08:54.137Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T08:29:22.025Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T08:44:37.499Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T09:04:57.324Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T09:25:12.322Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T09:45:37.505Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T10:00:57.414Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T10:21:22.895Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T10:41:54.605Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T10:57:08.641Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T11:17:27.774Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T11:37:53.394Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T11:58:08.065Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T12:13:27.659Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T12:34:26.952Z69.5%-—
2026-07-28T12:38:57.039Z69.5%-—

INSUFFICIENT DATA

  • No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
  • Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
  • A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.

There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.

KEY RISKS

  • New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.

RESOLUTION CRITERIA

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate hikes will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.

TRADE YES/NOWHY NO ANALYSIS