Will Anthropic's initial public offering occur in October 2026 (ET)?
Ends: Dec 31, 2027, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 24, 2026, 07:41 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21T17:56:43.685Z | 66.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-21T21:40:23.926Z | 67.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-22T01:53:00.488Z | 67.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-23T23:21:56.149Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T03:49:13.017Z | 68.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-24T07:41:06.750Z | 73.5% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve based on the calendar month (ET) in which Anthropic's initial public offering (IPO) occurs. The resolving month will be the calendar month (ET) containing the first day on which Anthropic shares are listed and open for regular-way trading on a public securities exchange. An IPO refers to Anthropic shares becoming listed and open for trading on a public securities exchange, whether through a traditional initial public offering or a direct listing. If Anthropic goes public through a merger, acquisition, or absorption by an entity that is already publicly traded, including a special purpose acquisition company, this market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2028". Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun. Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.