Bitcoin Up or Down on September 21?
Ends: Sep 21, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Sep 21, 2026, 16:24 UTCResult: UPResolved: Sep 21, 2026, 16:13 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-21T09:28:00.571Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T09:44:37.507Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:15:50.269Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:18:00.426Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:31:31.751Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:44:12.650Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:49:12.565Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T10:54:17.789Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T11:02:47.850Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T11:13:14.170Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T11:23:10.557Z | 96.5% | 100.0% | +3.5 pp |
| 2026-09-21T11:58:20.204Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:02:11.654Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:07:21.871Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:18:01.711Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:41:21.423Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T12:56:53.441Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:14:59.601Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:17:50.943Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:25:58.330Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:43:52.697Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:45:36.316Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T13:55:35.105Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:18:45.933Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:43:08.304Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T14:51:40.359Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:22:00.759Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:35:19.061Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T15:53:36.314Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
| 2026-09-21T16:00:40.344Z | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21, 04:00 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:53 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:35 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 03:22 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 02:51 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 02:43 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 02:18 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Sep 21, 01:55 PM | 99.6% | 100.0% | +0.4 pp | NO EDGE |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Sep 20 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Sep 21 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.