Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 09:23 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T08:25:04.329Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:31:04.990Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:32:20.915Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:32:55.491Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:33:41.025Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:40:55.715Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:46:28.750Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:51:58.264Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:57:01.367Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:00:44.104Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:01:40.313Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:02:40.198Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:11:36.312Z | 8.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:14:01.185Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:19:37.058Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:20:15.145Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:23:14.536Z | 6.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T09:23:30.730Z | 6.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.