Bitcoin Up or Down on July 31?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 08:26 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T02:39:36.565Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T02:47:26.135Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T02:56:40.005Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:08:40.227Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:27:01.736Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:38:12.867Z | 30.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:46:03.767Z | 33.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T03:54:02.334Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:08:13.832Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:35:06.634Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:40:52.461Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:53:17.178Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:04:32.819Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:11:08.691Z | 32.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:17:41.155Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:25:06.617Z | 31.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:32:40.028Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:55:58.922Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:02:41.032Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:26:57.386Z | 29.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:39:03.925Z | 30.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:50.985Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:57:22.173Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:06:50.113Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:18:45.806Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:42:18.483Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:55:04.374Z | 13.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:14:10.363Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:25:04.329Z | 10.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T08:26:59.472Z | 10.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Jul 30 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Jul 31 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.