Counter-Strike: Imperial vs BESTIA - Map 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 29, 2026, 03:20 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 24:14 UTCResult: IMPERIALResolved: Jul 29, 2026, 24:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
IMPERIAL probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T21:44:50.759Z | 78.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:50:00.794Z | 89.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T21:55:10.623Z | 94.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:00:57.664Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:06:00.144Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:11:05.086Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:16:10.148Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:21:13.910Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:26:15.053Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:31:20.199Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:36:27.466Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:41:30.651Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:46:35.464Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:51:41.782Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:56:50.634Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:02:00.465Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:07:05.150Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:12:10.486Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:17:20.300Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:22:25.347Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:27:42.188Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:32:46.868Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:37:50.936Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:43:01.701Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:48:10.810Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:53:20.450Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T23:58:25.747Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:03:35.923Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:08:42.345Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T00:14:08.387Z | 100.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- No verified analysis was published before the market closed.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 match between Imperial and BESTIA in the StarLadder StarSeries South American Qualifier Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 28 at 5:00PM ET. This market will resolve to "Imperial" if Imperial win Map 1 against BESTIA. This market will resolve to "BESTIA" if BESTIA win Map 1 against Imperial. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 1. If Map 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.