Bitcoin Up or Down on August 7?
Ends: Aug 7, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 7, 2026, 03:28 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T01:34:44.776Z | 36.5% | 41.2% | +4.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:38:35.767Z | 36.5% | 39.7% | +3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:45:27.162Z | 36.5% | 36.4% | -0.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:49:36.228Z | 36.5% | 37.3% | +0.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:53:36.481Z | 36.5% | 39.0% | +2.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T01:55:43.360Z | 36.5% | 38.1% | +1.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:02:43.153Z | 36.5% | 39.2% | +2.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:04:40.161Z | 36.5% | 38.0% | +1.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:08:32.166Z | 36.5% | 38.4% | +1.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:15:05.710Z | 36.5% | 36.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:18:23.398Z | 36.5% | 43.8% | +7.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:21:36.509Z | 36.5% | 41.0% | +4.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:26:34.817Z | 36.5% | 34.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:30:36.151Z | 36.5% | 33.2% | -3.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:34:43.486Z | 36.5% | 34.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:38:34.861Z | 36.5% | 35.6% | -0.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:45:49.759Z | 36.5% | 38.3% | +1.8 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:49:41.322Z | 36.5% | 38.9% | +2.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:51:46.202Z | 36.5% | 40.2% | +3.7 pp |
| 2026-08-07T02:55:59.900Z | 36.5% | 39.4% | +2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:01:41.943Z | 36.5% | 37.1% | +0.6 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:03:41.150Z | 36.5% | 33.5% | -3.0 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:09:41.558Z | 36.5% | 36.2% | -0.3 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:13:11.137Z | 36.5% | 36.0% | -0.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:19:44.361Z | 36.5% | 33.4% | -3.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:21:42.719Z | 36.5% | 32.1% | -4.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:25:55.052Z | 36.5% | 31.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:28:01.033Z | 36.5% | 31.1% | -5.4 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:31:42.987Z | 36.5% | 33.0% | -3.5 pp |
| 2026-08-07T03:35:45.570Z | 36.5% | 35.1% | -1.4 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
MARKET DATA UNAVAILABLE
- The current analysis expired or its live market source is temporarily unavailable.
- Expired Fair Price, Edge, Confidence and Verdict are withheld by the server.
- No trade signal is generated until a fresh calculation completes.
Current data cannot be used safely for a trade signal.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 07, 03:35 AM | 36.5% | 35.1% | −1.4 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:31 AM | 36.5% | 33.0% | −3.5 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 03:25 AM | 36.5% | 31.1% | −5.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 03:21 AM | 36.5% | 32.1% | −4.4 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 03:19 AM | 36.5% | 33.4% | −3.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 07, 03:13 AM | 36.5% | 36.0% | −0.5 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:09 AM | 36.5% | 36.2% | −0.3 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 07, 03:03 AM | 36.5% | 33.5% | −3.0 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 6 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 7 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.