Will James Fishback win less than 10% of votes in the Florida Republican Governor primary?
Ends: Aug 18, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 18, 2026, 08:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16T12:58:09.817Z | 38.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T15:59:47.252Z | 38.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-16T20:59:57.046Z | 36.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T00:54:35.784Z | 50.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T05:55:41.163Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T09:37:22.692Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T14:06:05.912Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T18:40:00.906Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-17T23:12:23.576Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T03:44:23.799Z | 54.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-18T08:12:02.420Z | 49.0% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Primary elections in Florida are scheduled to be held on August 18, 2026. This market will resolve according to the share of valid votes James Fishback wins in the 2026 Florida Republican Gubernatorial Primary. If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Florida, such as official statewide results published by the Florida Department of State (https://dos.fl.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice. If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.