Will Carlos Alcaraz win the 2026 Men's US Open?
Ends: Sep 13, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 03:00 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-23T02:59:30.195Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-23T07:59:31.588Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-23T11:59:22.192Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-23T16:59:54.047Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-23T20:58:04.734Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T01:58:12.237Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T05:57:41.776Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T10:58:37.010Z | 20.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T14:58:12.479Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T19:59:54.220Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-24T23:59:49.206Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T04:56:56.067Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T08:55:09.865Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T13:56:56.094Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T18:57:32.689Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-25T22:55:54.341Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T03:05:25.638Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T07:35:26.080Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T12:07:18.159Z | 22.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T16:37:58.665Z | 19.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-26T21:09:51.952Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T01:39:46.389Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T06:13:06.406Z | 21.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-27T10:45:01.211Z | 22.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T02:38:56.730Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T04:51:02.249Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T19:44:23.216Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T22:59:47.915Z | 21.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:21:19.852Z | 16.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T03:00:09.861Z | 10.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
The 2026 U.S. Open tennis tournament is scheduled for August 23 - September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to the player that wins the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament. If at any point it becomes impossible for a listed player to win the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament per the rules of the tournament, the corresponding market will resolve to “No”. If the 2026 U.S. Open Men’s Singles Tournament is cancelled, postponed after October 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”. The primary resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Open (https://www.usopen.org/index.html); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.