Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 22:18 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T21:24:18.235Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:29:22.310Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:35:03.013Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:40:06.825Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:45:18.358Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:50:33.286Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T21:55:44.749Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T22:00:51.033Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T22:12:33.433Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T22:17:59.229Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T22:18:50.585Z | 0.1% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the title of the film with the highest 2026 gross according to the "Gross" column on https://www.boxofficemojo.com/year/2026/?grossesOption=calendarGrosses once data for December 31 is made available. Note: This market is about the movie's domestic calendar gross in 2026 - dates outside of 2026 will not count toward this movie's gross. In the event of an exact tie the film that comes first alphabetically will be considered the winner. If there is no final data available by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.