Counter-Strike: Liquid vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Jul 30, 2026, 19:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 08:49 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
LIQUID probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-30T05:52:03.957Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T05:57:09.047Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:02:19.221Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:08:08.785Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:13:19.781Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:18:25.134Z | 24.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:23:30.411Z | 24.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:28:40.689Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:33:47.196Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:38:53.642Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:44:05.471Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T06:49:16.623Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:13:13.035Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:19:24.270Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:25:01.695Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:30:07.815Z | 25.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:36:00.963Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:41:33.912Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:47:02.308Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:52:21.230Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T07:57:31.860Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:02:48.314Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:10:39.558Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:15:57.655Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:23:10.782Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:28:17.725Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:33:30.568Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:38:39.087Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:43:50.755Z | 25.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T08:49:02.015Z | 25.5% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 4 match between Liquid and Spirit in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 31 at 11:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Liquid" if Liquid win Map 2 against Spirit. This market will resolve to "Spirit" if Spirit win Map 2 against Liquid. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.