Bitcoin Up or Down on August 11?
Ends: Aug 11, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 11, 2026, 09:01 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
UP probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-11T06:05:40.686Z | 41.5% | 31.7% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:09:38.159Z | 41.5% | 33.7% | -7.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:14:43.575Z | 41.5% | 34.5% | -7.0 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:18:39.314Z | 41.5% | 32.9% | -8.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:26:50.247Z | 41.5% | 30.0% | -11.5 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:34:39.713Z | 41.5% | 25.8% | -15.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:38:42.894Z | 41.5% | 25.8% | -15.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:47:45.184Z | 39.5% | 26.7% | -12.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T06:55:46.392Z | 39.5% | 22.6% | -16.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:04:48.924Z | 39.5% | 29.7% | -9.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:09:28.605Z | 39.5% | 29.6% | -9.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:16:44.076Z | 39.5% | 27.4% | -12.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:22:43.501Z | 39.5% | 25.2% | -14.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:25:21.146Z | 39.5% | 25.4% | -14.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:33:46.026Z | 39.5% | 28.9% | -10.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:37:45.162Z | 39.5% | 33.2% | -6.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:46:46.124Z | 39.5% | 36.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T07:53:44.804Z | 39.5% | 36.6% | -2.9 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:00:33.304Z | 39.5% | 34.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:05:19.598Z | 39.5% | 37.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:13:44.100Z | 39.5% | 35.4% | -4.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:18:49.018Z | 39.5% | 34.4% | -5.1 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:23:43.720Z | 39.5% | 33.9% | -5.6 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:25:55.452Z | 39.5% | 34.7% | -4.8 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:35:40.596Z | 39.5% | 33.8% | -5.7 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:39:38.203Z | 39.5% | 35.2% | -4.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:49:42.076Z | 39.5% | 36.3% | -3.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:53:44.722Z | 39.5% | 37.2% | -2.3 pp |
| 2026-08-11T08:58:47.345Z | 39.5% | 39.7% | +0.2 pp |
| 2026-08-11T09:01:14.396Z | 39.5% | 39.7% | +0.2 pp |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 11, 08:58 AM | 41.5% | 39.7% | −1.8 pp | NO EDGE |
| Aug 11, 08:53 AM | 41.5% | 37.2% | −4.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:49 AM | 41.5% | 36.3% | −5.2 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:39 AM | 41.5% | 35.2% | −6.3 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:35 AM | 41.5% | 33.8% | −7.7 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:25 AM | 41.5% | 34.7% | −6.8 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:23 AM | 41.5% | 33.9% | −7.6 pp | BUY DOWN |
| Aug 11, 08:18 AM | 41.5% | 34.4% | −7.1 pp | BUY DOWN |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Up" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is lower than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. This market will resolve to "Down" if the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT Aug 10 '26 12:00 in the ET timezone (noon) is higher than the final "Close" price for the Aug 11 '26 12:00 ET candle. If the final "Close" price for both of these candles is exactly equal on Binance, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market is Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar. Please note that this market is about the price according to Binance BTC/USDT, not according to other exchanges or trading pairs.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.