Will Kai and Speed have between 30 and 49 total in-game deaths during their Minecraft marathon?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 13, 2026, 24:09 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-10T23:59:05.720Z | 30.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T02:59:28.289Z | 17.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T07:56:56.843Z | 9.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T12:54:15.881Z | 8.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T16:52:48.691Z | 3.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-11T21:58:37.642Z | 10.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T01:36:14.975Z | 13.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T06:05:23.403Z | 13.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T10:39:56.162Z | 15.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T15:11:29.552Z | 20.9% | - | — |
| 2026-08-12T19:40:28.052Z | 80.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-13T00:09:34.904Z | 99.9% | - | — |
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
No linked events in this range.
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
Kai Cenat and IShowSpeed are scheduled to stream a hardcore Minecraft marathon on August 7, 2026, at 5:00 PM ET. They will attempt a challenge to defeat the Ender Dragon, the Wither, the Warden, and the Elder Guardian in a hardcore Minecraft world on Java Edition, on the same seed, without either player dying in-game. For the purposes of this market, "the marathon" refers to Kai and Speed's Minecraft stream beginning on that date and continuing until they conclude or abandon it. This market will resolve according to the final value displayed on the in-game death counter on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch at the time Kai and Speed complete or end the marathon. The value displayed on the counter will be used regardless of how it is calculated. It will not matter whether Kai and Speed complete the aforementioned challenge, nor whether they modify the rules of the challenge at any point, including by removing an objective, adding a player, or playing outside of Hardcore mode. If no counter is displayed at the time Kai and Speed complete or end the marathon, the last value displayed on the counter during the marathon will be used. This bracket will resolve to "No" early if the counter displays a value higher than the range of this bracket. If the marathon ends or is cancelled, this market will resolve according to the number on the counter at that point. If the marathon is still ongoing as of September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve according to the value displayed on the counter at that time. The resolution source for this market will be the in-game death counter displayed on Kai Cenat's official broadcast on Twitch (https://www.twitch.tv/kaicenat).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.