Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 02:18 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T01:23:01.806Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:31:09.181Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:41:14.053Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:46:23.492Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:53:30.456Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:58:38.568Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:04:23.915Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:14:14.793Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T02:18:06.200Z | 1.4% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.