Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026?
Ends: Sep 30, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 01:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T22:31:34.256Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:38:24.979Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:43:33.858Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:48:55.468Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T22:54:52.039Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:00:31.334Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:06:50.860Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:12:09.071Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:17:51.248Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:23:16.230Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:31:42.903Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:38:30.639Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:44:29.565Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:50:13.493Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T23:55:30.609Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:01:16.526Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:08:23.964Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:13:45.445Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:18:58.847Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:24:16.499Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:29:42.417Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:37:54.505Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:45:14.578Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:51:08.485Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T00:56:34.298Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:02:53.567Z | 1.3% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:11:13.643Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:16:31.163Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:23:01.806Z | 1.4% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T01:31:09.181Z | 1.4% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if China commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of the Republic of China (Taiwan) by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Territory under the administration of the Republic of China, including any inhabited islands, will qualify; however, uninhabited islands will not qualify. The resolution source for this market will be official confirmation by China, Taiwan, the United Nations, or any permanent member of the UN Security Council; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.