Counter-Strike: paiN vs Astralis - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 22:10 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 19:42 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
PAIN probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T17:54:45.412Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:59:49.583Z | 7.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:07:11.018Z | 29.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:12:21.353Z | 15.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:19:01.530Z | 28.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:24:30.048Z | 45.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:29:36.622Z | 47.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:35:25.444Z | 9.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:41:21.678Z | 23.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:46:33.339Z | 31.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:53:28.575Z | 11.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:58:42.486Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:03:51.468Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:11:16.654Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:17:42.617Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:23:07.196Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:28:29.612Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:33:47.398Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:39:45.217Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:42:39.722Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Quarterfinal 1 match between paiN and Astralis in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for July 30 at 9:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "paiN" if paiN win Map 2 against Astralis. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against paiN. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.