Will Lucas Jumalon Win the 2026 WSOP Main Event?
Ends: OpenMarket data: Aug 5, 2026, 01:22 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04T21:58:48.146Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T22:19:07.592Z | 34.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-04T23:26:13.141Z | 35.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-05T00:29:27.465Z | 39.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 World Series of Poker (WSOP) Main Event ($10,000 No-Limit Hold'em World Championship), currently scheduled for July 2 – August 5, 2026, at Horseshoe and Paris Las Vegas in Las Vegas, Nevada. If this tournament is postponed after August 19, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, canceled, or a winner has not been declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other." If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the tournament organizer, WSOP (via wsop.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.