Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C or below on August 1?
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 12:00 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 10:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T08:55:59.813Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:01:34.962Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:08:25.422Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:17:04.526Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:24:09.615Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:30:17.910Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:35:53.512Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:41:46.752Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:46:51.496Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:53:53.483Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T09:59:02.254Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:04:26.682Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T10:09:59.970Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by the Hong Kong Observatory in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26. The resolution source for this market will be information from the Hong Kong Observatory, specifically the "Absolute Daily Max (deg. C)" the specified date once information is finalized in the relevant "Daily Extract", available here: https://www.weather.gov.hk/en/cis/climat.htm This market can not resolve until data for this date has been published. The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market. Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is initially published for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.