US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
Ends: Sep 1, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 26, 2026, 05:10 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-07T06:49:21.137Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T08:51:06.222Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T10:53:08.427Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T12:29:18.472Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T14:59:30.316Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T17:46:37.538Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T19:59:17.229Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T21:50:26.472Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-07T23:52:31.963Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T01:55:53.281Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T03:59:22.182Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T04:58:27.965Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T06:59:46.043Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T08:47:25.245Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T10:50:21.301Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T12:59:51.299Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T14:56:08.101Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T16:59:48.989Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T19:59:24.554Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T21:46:40.651Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-08T23:49:35.543Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-09T01:52:20.902Z | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10.1 pp |
| 2026-08-10T11:55:08.873Z | 21.5% | 54.6% | +33.1 pp |
| 2026-08-12T18:56:42.595Z | 18.5% | 54.6% | +36.1 pp |
| 2026-08-15T01:57:02.856Z | 10.5% | 54.6% | +44.1 pp |
| 2026-08-17T08:54:06.042Z | 9.5% | 54.6% | +45.1 pp |
| 2026-08-19T15:55:38.510Z | 4.5% | 54.6% | +50.1 pp |
| 2026-08-21T23:58:16.876Z | 2.1% | 54.6% | +52.5 pp |
| 2026-08-24T06:44:35.381Z | 1.8% | 54.6% | +52.8 pp |
| 2026-08-26T05:10:56.962Z | 3.1% | 54.6% | +51.4 pp |
2026-07-14T19:53:09.818839Z — Strait of Hormuz 'faultline' exposes weakness of the US-Iran deal
2026-07-17T05:32:58.866877Z — US denies Iranian claims it hit civilian infrastructure in latest strikes
2026-07-18T07:37:54.512910Z — US strikes hit Iran for seventh consecutive night
2026-07-20T10:30:29.256675Z — Trump warns Iran will pay 'many times over' for deaths of US soldiers
2026-07-21T00:01:48.109635Z — US launches fresh strikes on Iran, as Trump warns of retaliation for deaths of soldiers
2026-07-27T00:22:15.696239Z — Iran says it continues exchanging messages with US, but conditions for talks are absent
2026-07-28T00:07:08.353197Z — Oil prices tumble over 10% on hopes for US-Iran diplomacy
2026-07-28T00:26:05.829939Z — Trump says there is ‘good chance’ of deal with Iran
2026-07-28T00:38:07.628594Z — CENTCOM says US forces redirected 17 commercial vessels, boarded 2
2026-07-29T00:08:51.929590Z — Iranian missiles reportedly target US bases in Jordan
2026-07-29T00:17:28.407103Z — All Iranian ballistic missiles intercepted after attempted attack on US forces in Middle East: CENTCOM
2026-07-29T01:01:11.246125Z — US, Saudi forces strike Iran-backed targets in Iraq: CENTCOM
2026-07-29T01:44:32.602444Z — Saudi Arabia says it intercepted drones targeting oil facilities, blames Iran-backed militias in Iraq
2026-07-30T00:03:23.766795Z — Trump vows 'very hard' response after drone strike on US-owned LNG tanker in Egypt
2026-07-30T00:30:01.561310Z — 4 members of Iran’s IRGC killed in US-Saudi strike in Iraq: Report
2026-07-30T00:50:31.418630Z — US launches new strikes against Iran
2026-07-30T01:09:56.554483Z — US sanctions 8 tankers, 10 entities for alleged role in Iranian oil trade
2026-08-01T00:14:17.281269Z — US, Israel preparing major strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure: Report
2026-08-01T00:15:37.027072Z — US, Israel preparing major strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure: Reports
2026-08-01T00:38:13.263635Z — Iran's IRGC says it hit 2 tankers, forced 4 others to turn back in Strait of Hormuz
2026-08-01T00:41:09.628328Z — Iran's army claims drone attack on US facilities at Kuwait air base
2026-08-01T00:41:34.246725Z — China says attacks on non-military targets ‘unacceptable’ after Iranian strike hits Chinese company building in Kuwait
2026-08-04T21:28:11.695813Z — Qatari emir, Trump review efforts to de-escalate US-Iran tensions
2026-08-04T21:32:08.356698Z — Political signal changed
2026-08-04T21:32:25.250558Z — Mediators prepping document for reopening Hormuz amid indirect US-Iran contacts: Sources
2026-08-04T21:32:29.261600Z — Political signal changed
2026-08-04T21:34:02.910884Z — Oil prices plunge around 6% as US-Iran diplomacy eases supply fears
2026-08-04T21:46:20.804673Z — Middle East crisis: Humanitarian fallout ‘worsening by the day’
MARKET TIMELINE
Events are placed when they became available to the system
THE PIVOT
Auditable Marx and crowd reaction history
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 54.9% → 55.7%
- REACTION
- 521.38s
- CROWD LAG
- 15382s
2026-08-04T21:32:03.792646+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 54.9% to 55.7%; Polymarket was 53.0%. Reaction Time 521378 ms. Crowd Lag 15382 seconds.
- Political signal changedPolitical Sentiment
- MARX FAIR
- 53.8% → 54.9%
- REACTION
- 501.09s
- CROWD LAG
- 612s
2026-08-04T21:32:03.754485+00:00 — Political signal changed. Marx Fair moved from 53.8% to 54.9%; Polymarket was 53.0%. Reaction Time 501093 ms. Crowd Lag 612 seconds.
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
FORECAST HISTORY
| Time | PM | FAIR | EDGE | SIGNAL |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 09, 01:52 AM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 11:49 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 09:46 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 07:59 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 04:59 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 02:56 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 12:59 PM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
| Aug 08, 10:50 AM | 44.5% | 54.6% | +10 pp | BUY YES |
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
On June 22, the first round of U.S.-Iran diplomatic talks in Switzerland concluded, with mediators reporting progress toward a roadmap for a final deal and follow-on technical talks expected to continue.(see: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/6/22/us-iran-agree-on-roadmap-towards-final-deal-in-switzerland-talks). This market will resolve to “Yes” if the next formal senior-level round of peace talks between representatives of the United States and Iran begins by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying round must be a deliberate in-person diplomatic meeting or negotiating round concerning US-Iran relations, involving senior representatives of both the United States and Iran who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to conduct or materially direct diplomacy on behalf of their governments. Indirect in-person diplomacy through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors will qualify, provided senior representatives of both the United States and Iran are participating in the same formal diplomatic process with the knowledge and authorization of their respective governments. The representatives need not be in the same room at the same time. Follow-on technical talks from the June 22 Switzerland round will not qualify by themselves. Technical, staff-level, working-group, implementation, monitoring, preparatory, or deconfliction meetings will not qualify unless they occur as part of a new formally convened senior-level U.S.-Iran peace-talks round. Brief greetings, chance encounters, photo opportunities, ceremonial appearances, or talks not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person (including indirect in-person meetings) and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.