Counter-Strike: Astralis vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 20:10 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 18:12 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
ASTRALIS probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T15:54:40.927Z | 12.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T15:59:57.528Z | 1.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:05:55.357Z | 3.8% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:12:04.903Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:17:17.312Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:23:04.556Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:29:02.445Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:34:15.413Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:40:08.030Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:46:48.811Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:53:28.117Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T16:59:10.725Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:04:50.759Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:11:23.538Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:17:38.174Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:23:18.665Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:28:44.222Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:34:58.936Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:41:31.211Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:46:55.760Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:52:43.862Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:58:56.398Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:04:17.908Z | 0.1% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:12:26.481Z | 0.1% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Counter-Strike Semifinal 2 match between Astralis and MOUZ in the BLAST Bounty Playoffs, initially scheduled for August 1 at 9:30AM ET. This market will resolve to "Astralis" if Astralis win Map 2 against MOUZ. This market will resolve to "MOUZ" if MOUZ win Map 2 against Astralis. If the match begins but is not completed, and Map 2 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Map 2. If Map 2 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://hltv.org. However, if https://hltv.org has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.