Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 07:55 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T04:40:45.011Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:46:53.892Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T04:53:17.782Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:02:24.202Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:09:05.826Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:14:32.666Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:19:41.520Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:25:16.519Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:30:34.390Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:35:47.461Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:41:49.251Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:47:44.268Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:53:42.628Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T05:59:19.355Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:06:07.668Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:14:05.602Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:19:22.864Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:26:57.386Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:36:59.252Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:42:25.636Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:48:03.300Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T06:54:23.582Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:01:02.786Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:06:41.515Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:18:44.019Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:25:06.087Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:30:47.294Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:42:18.483Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:48:38.503Z | 4.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T07:55:04.373Z | 4.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States formally declares war on Iran through an act of Congress between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." To qualify, Congress must pass a formal declaration of war, consistent with its constitutional authority under Article I, Section 8. Authorizations for the use of military force (AUMFs), executive orders, presidential statements, or military actions do not qualify unless accompanied by a formal declaration of war enacted by Congress and signed into law. The resolution source will be a clear consensus of credible reporting.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.