Will Roberto Mancini be the next head coach of the Italian National Soccer Team?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 23:59 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 17:08 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T16:44:07.009Z | 99.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:49:12.754Z | 99.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T16:54:17.528Z | 99.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:00:10.466Z | 99.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:05:16.140Z | 99.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T17:08:22.856Z | 99.2% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the person appointed as the next permanent head coach of Italy’s Men’s National Soccer Team. If no permanent head coach is appointed by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other." Appointments of 'interim,' 'caretaker,' or other non-permanent managers will not impact this market's resolution. An announcement of a new permanent manager's appointment before this market's close date will immediately resolve this market to the corresponding option, regardless of when the announced appointment goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Italian Football Federation (Federazione Italiana Giuoco Calcio); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.