Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs LGD Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 23:10 UTCMarket data: Jul 31, 2026, 19:02 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
XTREME GAMING probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-31T16:01:42.257Z | 51.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:13:29.715Z | 51.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:21:27.560Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:26:36.704Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:31:53.412Z | 53.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:40:08.413Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:45:40.834Z | 53.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:51:17.339Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T16:56:24.786Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:02:25.498Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:11:23.617Z | 48.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:17:43.390Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:25:26.091Z | 52.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:32:21.296Z | 51.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:38:21.728Z | 55.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:43:34.809Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:48:54.495Z | 52.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:54:41.165Z | 36.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T17:59:49.583Z | 39.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:07:11.018Z | 42.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:12:21.353Z | 80.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:19:01.530Z | 82.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:24:30.048Z | 84.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:29:36.622Z | 93.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:35:25.444Z | 98.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:41:21.678Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:46:33.339Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:53:28.575Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T18:58:42.486Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-31T19:02:07.843Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 match between Xtreme Gaming and LGD Gaming in the Games of the Future Group D, initially scheduled for July 31 at 10:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Xtreme Gaming" if Xtreme Gaming win Game 1 against LGD Gaming. This market will resolve to "LGD Gaming" if LGD Gaming win Game 1 against Xtreme Gaming. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.