Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
Ends: Jul 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 29, 2026, 11:06 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T08:42:15.391Z | 73.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:47:18.513Z | 74.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:52:22.964Z | 73.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T08:57:33.644Z | 73.4% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:02:38.579Z | 73.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:07:48.533Z | 73.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:12:58.352Z | 73.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:18:08.864Z | 73.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:23:20.231Z | 72.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:28:28.608Z | 72.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:33:33.788Z | 72.8% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:38:38.611Z | 72.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:43:45.624Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:48:49.745Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:53:58.955Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T09:59:05.150Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:04:16.730Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:09:31.015Z | 72.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:14:39.101Z | 72.1% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:20:12.287Z | 72.2% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:25:15.862Z | 71.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:30:24.471Z | 74.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:35:55.772Z | 74.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:41:05.535Z | 74.6% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:46:14.558Z | 74.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:51:21.951Z | 75.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T10:56:24.391Z | 75.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T11:01:35.188Z | 75.7% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T11:06:40.583Z | 75.3% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T11:06:52.358Z | 75.3% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest arena rank among primarily Chinese companies, based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on July 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET. Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. Qualifying Chinese Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Meituan” would be ranked ahead of “Xiaomi”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.