Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?
Ends: Aug 13, 2026, 16:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 28, 2026, 12:38 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-28T08:41:56.931Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T08:52:07.058Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:02:16.997Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:07:22.024Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:17:33.910Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:27:42.042Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:32:44.590Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:42:52.317Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:47:57.141Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T09:58:17.032Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:08:46.194Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:13:47.255Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:24:05.754Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:34:12.896Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:39:30.747Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:49:38.053Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T10:54:53.839Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:05:04.173Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:15:12.844Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:20:17.216Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:30:27.663Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:40:55.103Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:45:57.363Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T11:56:12.457Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:01:17.271Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:11:27.703Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:21:37.405Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:26:42.622Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:37:02.580Z | 96.0% | - | — |
| 2026-07-28T12:38:11.373Z | 96.0% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
A by-election for the United Kingdom parliamentary constituency of Clacton is expected to be held soon following the announced resignation of incumbent Nigel Farage. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the Clacton parliamentary by-election. If the election results are not known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. In case of ambiguity, this market will resolve solely based on official election results as published by Tendring District Council (https://www.tendringdc.gov.uk/) and the UK Parliament (https://www.parliament.uk/).
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.