US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
Ends: Dec 31, 2026, 24:00 UTCMarket data: Jul 30, 2026, 02:20 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
YES probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-29T23:49:07.891Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T23:54:19.191Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-29T23:59:22.908Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:05:17.475Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:10:36.374Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:15:45.061Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:21:19.003Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:26:23.394Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:31:28.367Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:36:51.946Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:41:59.349Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:47:08.328Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:52:31.011Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T00:57:43.975Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:02:50.070Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:08:02.029Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:13:19.456Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:18:27.610Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:23:51.740Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:29:06.459Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:34:15.077Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:40:11.191Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:45:19.261Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:51:04.275Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T01:56:15.772Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:01:33.634Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:08:25.074Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:13:35.319Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:18:48.862Z | 9.5% | - | — |
| 2026-07-30T02:20:00.748Z | 9.5% | - | — |
INSUFFICIENT DATA
- No independent estimate was published; the market price is not presented as Marx Fair.
- Data validation status: NOT PUBLISHED.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the US government or military officially announces or confirms that it has gained possession of any quantity of enriched uranium previously controlled by Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. “Possession” means that the United States has actual physical custody or control of the enriched uranium, whether held within U.S. territory or elsewhere. Announcements of deals, agreements, commitments, or plans under which the United States would acquire possession of Iranian enriched uranium at a later time will not qualify. Qualifying possession of Iranian enriched uranium may be acquired through any means, including through an agreed surrender or seizure. A widespread consensus of credible reporting that the United States has gained possession of Iranian enriched uranium will also qualify for a “Yes” resolution, even if the United States makes no formal announcement. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States; however, a widespread consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.