UFC Fight Night: Gilbert Urbina vs. Vlasto Cepo (Middleweight, Prelims)
Ends: Aug 2, 2026, 03:59 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 18:31 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
GILBERT URBINA probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T16:57:24.818Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:02:59.030Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:12:26.913Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:17:44.753Z | 27.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:26:14.272Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:31:56.415Z | 26.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:41:44.422Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:47:06.666Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T17:55:01.132Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:00:54.784Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:12:42.400Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:18:29.163Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:25:37.405Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T18:31:48.879Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market will resolve to "Gilbert Urbina" if Gilbert Urbina is officially declared the winner of the fight against Vlasto Cepo at UFC Fight Night: Medić vs. Rodriguez, scheduled for August 1, 2026. It will resolve to "Vlasto Cepo" if Vlasto Cepo is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond August 15, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.