Dota 2: Execration vs Amaru Gaming - Game 1 Winner
Ends: Aug 1, 2026, 11:25 UTCMarket data: Aug 1, 2026, 08:49 UTC
POLYMARKET VS MARX FAIR
Probability divergence over time
EXECRATION probability: Polymarket versus Marx Fair
| Time | Polymarket | Marx Fair | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01T05:54:52.194Z | 68.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T05:59:58.390Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:05:33.577Z | 97.5% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:11:22.678Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:19:26.043Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:25:15.847Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:30:29.827Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:35:41.256Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:48:16.845Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T06:54:56.739Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:00:39.065Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:10:50.387Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:16:24.093Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:24:29.178Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:30:50.987Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:36:27.223Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:41:33.583Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:47:05.090Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:53:04.975Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T07:58:22.900Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:03:36.094Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:09:59.627Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:15:41.274Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:21:25.484Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:27:43.073Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:32:59.036Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:38:10.932Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:43:30.763Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:48:36.798Z | 100.0% | - | — |
| 2026-08-01T08:49:25.539Z | 100.0% | - | — |
FAIR PRICE CALCULATION
- Independent research and Fair Price calculation are still processing.
- A signal is published only after the evidence passes quality checks.
There is not enough reliable data to calculate a fair probability.
KEY RISKS
- New information and resolution rules can change the estimate.
RESOLUTION CRITERIA
This market refers to the Dota 2 Elimination match between Execration and Amaru Gaming in the Games of the Future Group A, initially scheduled for August 1 at 1:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Execration" if Execration win Game 1 against Amaru Gaming. This market will resolve to "Amaru Gaming" if Amaru Gaming win Game 1 against Execration. If the match begins but is not completed, and Game 1 is concluded with a winner determined, this market will resolve based on the completed Game 1. If Game 1 is not completed for any reason, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match is canceled (not played at all) or is delayed beyond 7 days from the scheduled date without play beginning, this market will resolve 50-50. The resolution source for this market will be official information from https://www.dotabuff.com. However, if https://www.dotabuff.com has not published final results within 2 hours after the event’s conclusion, a consensus of credible reporting may be used instead including video evidence.
AntiPredict provides probabilistic analysis for informational purposes. Predictions are uncertain and may be wrong. This is not financial advice.